Futapy

HW 1

Per http://informationcomputingandthefuture.blogspot.com/p/hw1.html, posting answers (questions?).

A1.1 done

A1.2 ready to email

A2.1: Q1: If I wholly change the location of this blog or previously submitted (and presumably graded) HW links, is that a problem? That is, do you need old links to work at the end of the semester, or just some continuity such as old posts copied to a new blogging platform?

A2.2: Getting a late start to the semester planning process, I had emailed you for course recommendations. At first I was leaning towards a more concrete course, but after reading the course site I began to see some value in the study of predictions, particularly as they may relate to my work in electricity markets.

links about /the future/?

This is a tough assignment for me; I live in the present and analyze data from the past to predict the present state and the future. But here goes.

A3: https://medium.com/swlh/a-time-series-analysis-to-predict-the-end-of-covid-19-in-canada-b3094428b1a2 - a detailed post using a complicated cloud-based time series prediction tool to predict the end of Covid-19 which was laughably wrong. My guess is because it measures events that are determined by human behaviors without modeling any of those behaviors or the inputs to those behaviors. One of my personal goals is to know when not to apply a particular technology that seems purpose-fit for the problem at hand.

A4: ftp://pubftp.spp.org/Markets/ (note: Google Chrome now bombs on FTP links. Use Firefox or your favorite FTP browser) - Public markets data from Southwest Power Pool, Inc. on market offers and outcomes. Some industry knowledge and processing is required to make it a usable set. Is it about the future? Maybe; all the prices in the Day Ahead market are settled one day before the actual electricity is generated. By the way, the EIA has useful U.S. level summarized information also. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43895 shows a great example of a technology plateau graph.

A5: https://www.zdnet.com/article/bitcoin-a-guide-to-the-future-of-currency/ - A look at the future of Bitcoin from a decade ago when it was trading about $15/BTC. Do the criticisms still hold a decade later with 1000x the valuation? How do they compare with the criticisms of the crypto-currency today? I have not answered these questions but I would find them interesting.

A6: Four books on order from ABE; $5 each delivered. Bargain. I've tried to get books that were written sometime after I was born and at least a couple decades old, so that I can compare any predictions with our chosen reality. So one of:

Edit: proof of book selection - Shipping Company: USPS
Tracking Number: 9241990233785007041475